377
AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED OCT 01 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.9N 73.1W AT 01/0600 UTC, OR
ABOUT 450 NM WSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING ENE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 28 FT (8.5) JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE RAGGED EYE WITH
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO ITS SW AND 60 NM TO ITS
NW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN AN OUTER
BAND IS FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. A MUCH FASTER EAST-
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR
BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IMELDA IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE
IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA,
AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE SWELL IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 20W FROM
04N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. ION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO
12N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 50W FROM
04N TO 20N MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO
40W FROM 10N TO 16N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 14N17W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N22W, AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 09N34W TO 12N42W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO
10N48W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 10N55W AND TO
NEAR 12N60W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION DISCUSSED ABOVE UNDER
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-30W, AND ALSO
FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 30W-38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N91W TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93.5W, AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
LOW TO 20N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST
WEST OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 19N TO 20N.
OTHERWISE, A RATHER WEAK GRADIENT IS GENERALLY MAINTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT,
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN THE WEST- CENTRAL AND
SW GULF SECTIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 24N WEST
OF 91W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW AND TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND SW GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, MODEST HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING NE WINDS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE N GULF THU THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL PULSE
OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU AND FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AS HURRICANE IMELDA OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PULL FARTHER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS TRADES EAST OF
ABOUT 75W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE WEST OF 75W. SEAS ARE IN THE
3 TO 5 FT RANGE EAST OF 75W, AND 1 TO 3 FT WEST OF 75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 81W AND 82.5W, AND ALSO SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER
EASTERN COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN LEADING TO MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE SAT. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY SWELL
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE PASSAGES
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS FRI AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
IMELDA.
THE COMBINATION OF SEAS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE IMELDA AND THOSE
FROM NOW DEPARTED HURRICANE HUMBERTO THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION HAS RESULTED IN QUITE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 8 FT AND GREATER
SEAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS REACHING
TO A LINE FROM 31N61W TO 2473W. MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN THIS AREA OF
SEAS. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
31N35W CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN REGIME. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THESE AREAS IS ENHANCED BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE.
SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE, MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS REMAIN ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE IMELDA IS NEAR 29.7N
73.9W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 30.6N 71.1W WED
MORNING AND NORTH OF OUR AREA WED EVENING. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 73W
SHIFTING EASTWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELATED TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INITIATE FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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