005
AXNT20 KNHC 011021
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED OCT 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0955 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 72.1W AT 01/0900 UTC OR
400 NM WSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING ENE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 29 FT (9 M) NEAR THE
CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IMELDA CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY N OF 28N AND BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. A MUCH FASTER EAST-
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR
BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER, NEAR CATEGORY
2 STRENGTH, WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO BERMUDA LATE TODAY. IMELDA IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS,
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE
IMELDA AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA,
AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 21W, SOUTH
OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 52W, SOUTH OF
21N, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 09N TO 21N AND BETWEEN 40W AND
60W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N30W AND TO 06N36W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N36W TO 08N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N AND BETWEEN 22W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SHALLOW CONVECTION
IS ALSO NOTED IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS, MAINLY SOUTH
OF 27N. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N-NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE WESTERN AND SW
GULF. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK LOW OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WEAKEN. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU AND FRI.
MEANWHILE, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE N GULF
LATE THU THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUN
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
WEAKLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, SUPPORTING MAINLY
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS
IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR LIGHTER EASTERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY SWELL FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL REACH THE PASSAGES OF
THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
IMELDA.
THE COMBINATION OF SEAS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE IMELDA AND THOSE
FROM NOW DEPARTED HURRICANE HUMBERTO HAS RESULTED IN QUITE AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF 8 FT AND GREATER SEAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS REACHING TO A LINE FROM 31N61W TO 24N73W.
MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN THIS AREA OF SEAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE IMELDA IS NEAR 30.2N 72.1W
AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 31.1N 69.0W THIS
AFTERNOON AND NORTH OF OUR AREA WED EVENING. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 75W
SHIFTING EASTWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DELGADO
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