923
AXNT20 KNHC 011627
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED OCT 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1627 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE IMELDA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.0N 70.4W AT 01/1500 UTC OR
300 NM WSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING ENE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 32 FT EAST OF THE CENTER.
IMELDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 KT, AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IMELDA PASSES CLOSE
TO BERMUDA TONIGHT. IMELDA IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW ON THURSDAY, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST THEREAFTER. SWELLS
GENERATED BY IMELDA ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 22.5W,
SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 52.5W, SOUTH
OF 22N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 13.5N TO 22N BETWEEN
44W AND 63W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N36W TO 09N47.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02.5N TO 09.5N BETWEEN
23.5W AND 42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE SW GULF.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WILL REACH THE
PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS FRI AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE SW PART OF THE
BASIN IN ASSOCIATION TO THE EASTERN END OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF CUBA. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS
IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WILL REACH THE
PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS FRI AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
IMELDA.
THE COMBINATION OF SEAS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE IMELDA AND THOSE
FROM NOW DEPARTED HURRICANE HUMBERTO HAS RESULTED IN QUITE AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF 8 FT AND GREATER SEAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS REACHING TO A LINE FROM 31N60W TO 24N70W. MIXED SWELL IS
WITHIN THIS AREA OF SEAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES
IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6-9 FT NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 31.9N 66.7W
THIS EVENING, BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MOVE TO 32.6N 61.5W THU
MORNING, 33.8N 56.2W THU EVENING, 35.8N 52.4W FRI MORNING, WEAKEN
AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 38.0N 50.0W FRI EVENING, AND
40.7N 48.2W SAT MORNING. IMELDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO 45.9N 40.4W BY EARLY SUN. ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KRV
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