202
AXNT20 KNHC 012136
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU OCT 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE IMELDA IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 31.6N 67.9W AT
01/2100 UTC OR 170 NM WSW OF BERMUDA, MOVING ENE AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 32
FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE CENTER. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SWELLS AND HIGH SURF FROM IMELDA
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IMELDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 23W/24W,
SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION
IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 53W, SOUTH OF
22N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 10N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN
20W AND 42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND W OF THE LOW. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 90W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF, AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND WEAKEN. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS OFF VERACRUZ LATE THU AND FRI. MEANWHILE, BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COMBINING WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE N GULF LATE THU
THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUN
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND E OF 75W, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WILL REACH THE
PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS FRI AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE
IMELDA.
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT RESULTING FROM HURRICANE IMELDA COVER THE
WATERS N OF 23N AND W OF 60W. WINDS 20 KT OR GREATER AROUND IMELDA
COVER THE WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N,
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N37W. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF
4-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, IMELDA WILL MOVE TO 32.3N 64.1W THU
MORNING, BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MOVE TO 33.2N 58.7W THU
AFTERNOON, 34.8N 53.8W FRI MORNING, 37.2N 51.1W FRI AFTERNOON,
WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 39.5N 49.7W SAT MORNING,
AND 42.4N 46.9W SAT AFTERNOON. IMELDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 47.5N 38.0W BY SUN AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FORCE FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AL
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