314
AXNT20 KNHC 020543
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU OCT 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC FROM 04N TO 19N WITH AXIS
NEAR 24W, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 08N TO
22N WITH AXIS NEAR 54W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THE TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N30W TO 05N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N39W
TO 05N47W TO 10N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 00N TO 08N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE IMELDA TO THE SW OF BERMUDA IS ALLOWING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE
BASIN IS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN AND
SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO E WINDS N OF 25N. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE NE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO 3 FT BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL PULSE OFF VERACRUZ
THU EVENING AND FRI. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE N GULF LATE THU THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ON SUN ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE IMELDA N OF THE AREA TO THE SW OF
BERMUDA IS ALLOWING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN,
THUS THE CONTINUATION OF MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE SW BASIN
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WILL REACH THE
PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR ROUGH SEAS FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HURRICANE IMELDA IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.1N 65.0W AT 11 PM EDT,
AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 25 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
971 MB. EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA,
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. FRESH TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXTENDS FARTHER S TO NEAR 24N
AND W TO FLORIDA ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
THE FORM OF RAINBANDS ARE AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 24N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE AZORES HIGH DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, AND IS PROVIDING A WIDE AREA
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
NEAR 18N51W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, IMELDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM OUR WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO BUILD WSW TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL
GENERATED BY FORMER HURRICANE HUMBERTO AND HURRICANE IMELDA WILL
AFFECT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NORTH OF
25N AND EAST OF 73W TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD. MOREOVER, A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF NE
FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER, THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMBINED
FEATURE IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
RAMOS
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