132
AXNT20 KNHC 021037
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU OCT 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0955 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 29W, SOUTH OF
20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY
AIRMASS THAT SUPPRESSES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 55W, SOUTH OF
18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN
120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF THE
GAMBIA NEAR 13.5N16.5W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N30W TO
06N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N42W TO 06N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN AND SW GULF
WATERS, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE NE GULF WATERS,
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL PULSE OFF VERACRUZ THIS
EVENING AND FRI. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A COUPLE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURES
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NE GULF TONIGHT, EXPANDING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NW GULF FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN WHEN THE LOW PRESSURES LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN, WHILE SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE
REGION, SUSTAINING MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE
OR LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WILL REACH THE
PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN, ALLOWING ROUGH SEAS FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HURRICANE IMELDA IS NOW WELL NORTH OF OUR WATERS, LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N61W TO
THE NW BAHAMAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE CYCLONE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SW N ATLANTIC
WATERS N OF 28N AND BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDS FARTHER S TO NEAR 24N
AND W OF 53W TO FLORIDA ADJACENT WATERS.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WELL
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG 47W, EXTENDING FROM 12N TO 22N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ AND EAST OF 55W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HURRICANE IMELDA IS NEAR 32.8N 61.9W
AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 26 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. IMELDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
OUR WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY
FORMER HURRICANE HUMBERTO AND HURRICANE IMELDA WILL AFFECT JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NORTH OF 25N AND EAST
OF 73W TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MOREOVER, A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL FORCE
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE
NW BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THEREAFTER, THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMBINED FEATURE IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
DELGADO
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