415
AXNT20 KNHC 030614
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI OCT 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND LARGE SWELL:
THE POST-TROPICAL LOW OF IMELDA IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N54W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR 23N66W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT, WHICH TAILS END IN A 1013 MB
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
GALES N OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE ALSO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURING. GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE POST-TROPICAL LOW OF IMELDA
ARE COVERING THE WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS SYSTEM
COVER THE WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 80W, WITH SEAS PEAKING
AROUND 21 FT NEAR N OF 30N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. THE POST- TROPICAL
LOW OF IMELDA WILL SHIFT NE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE LOW
WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE FRONT TAIL
LOW WILL ALSO DIMINISH BELOW GALE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LARGE
SWELL, AND ASSOCIATED 12 FT SEAS, WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 12
FT BY SUN EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 08N TO 18N ALONG 42W AT 15-20 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 11N TO
20N ALONG 54W, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS TO
08N35W TO 13N56W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 09W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WATERS, MAINLY N
OF 25N AND E OF 89W. MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT ARE OVER THIS REGION
WHERE A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN,
WHICH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. LOCALLY
FRESH N TO NW WINDS ARE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ JUST W OF A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS IN THE NE GULF TONIGHT, EXPANDING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NW GULF FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SUN WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N AND OUT OF THE
GULF REGION.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER CUBA ADJACENT WATERS
DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BASIN-WIDE, WHICH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHERE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. HOWEVER,
NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES, INCLUDING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, BUILDING SEAS TO
NEAR 10 FT FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOUT A GALE WARNING AND LARGE
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE POST-TROPICAL LOW OF IMELDA NEAR
32N55W TO NEAR 23N66W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENDS ON A 1013 MB LOW E OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 25N75W. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS
FORCING GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN 74W AND 77W TONIGHT. SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO ABOUT
49W. THE AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS, PROVIDING GENTLE TO MODERATE
E TO SE WINDS E OF 43W ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF
THE FRONT LIKELY THROUGH SUN, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY IMELDA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THEN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
RAMOS
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