093
AXNT20 KNHC 030959
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI OCT 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0940 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS AND LARGE N SWELL:
THE POST-TROPICAL LOW OF IMELDA IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 36.5N50.5W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR 26N59W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT, WHICH CONTINUES W-SW TO A 1012
MB LOW JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75.5W. RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED EASTERLY GALES N OF THE LOW
CENTER AND FRONT WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WERE OCCURRING.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SINCE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND AREA
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE-
FORCE ACROSS THIS AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-
TROPICAL LOW OF IMELDA ARE NOW OCCURRING EAST OF THE COLD FRONT,
TO THE NORTH OF 29.5N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 49W. SEAS OF 12 FT OR
GREATER IN NORTHERLY SWELL THAT HAVE BEEN GENERATED IN THE PAST
DAYS FROM HUMBERTO, IMELDA AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM COVER THE WATERS
N OF 24N AND EXTEND BETWEEN 49W AND 77W. PEAK SEAS AROUND 23 FT
ARE NEAR 31N57W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
N OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LARGE SWELL WILL
DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUN
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT ON SUN. THIS SWELL WILL
GENERATE LARGE AND POWERFUL BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE EXPOSED
COASTLINES FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
OF THE U.S., LIKELY LEADING TO AREAS OF COASTAL FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 08N TO 18N ALONG 44W AT 15-20 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 11N TO
20N ALONG 54W, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 11.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS TO
08N22W TO 09N32W TO 08N41W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N41W TO
06N51W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 03.5N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 47.5W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75.5W WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THEN NORTHWEST TO 27.5N90W. 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA EXTENDS A RIDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE FRONTAL REMNANTS OF PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE GULF, MAINLY N OF 26N AND
E OF 90W. SEAS IN THE AREA AREA ARE 5 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SE LOUISIANA,
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS ARE OFFSHORE
VERACRUZ JUST W OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
94W, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ABOUT THIS TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF 23.5N
BETWEEN 86W AND 96W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NE GULF EXPANDING INTO THE
NORTH- CENTRAL AND NW GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING, AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH LATE SUN AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N AND OUT OF THE GULF
REGION.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 16N. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS BASIN-WIDE, WHICH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. HOWEVER,
NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES, INCLUDING THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, BUILDING SEAS TO
NEAR 10 FT FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOUT A GALE WARNING AND LARGE
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE POST-TROPICAL LOW OF IMELDA NEAR
31N53W TO NEAR 26N59W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT,
WHICH CONTINUES W-SW TO A 1012 MB LOW JUST E OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75.5W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING A RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
BETWEEN 73W AND 80W THIS MORNING. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 49W. THE
AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS, PROVIDING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS E OF 43W ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
25N60W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N75.5W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORCING STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE, BETWEEN 73W AND 77W THIS MORNING. THIS PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
N OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY IMELDA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STRIPLING
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