962
AXNT20 KNHC 031820
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI OCT 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC LARGE NORTH SWELL:
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ARE
CREATING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS SOUTH OF 31N. EXPECT 12 TO 21 FT
SEAS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W TO GRADUALLY DECAY AND SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 31N SHOULD
SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT. THIS SWELL WILL ALSO SUSTAIN DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND PROBABLE LOCAL COASTAL
INUNDATION ALONG THE EAST-FACING SHORES OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA,
THE NORTH AND EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE BAHAMAS, AND THE NORTH-
FACING SHORES ACROSS HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER AGENCIES FOR THE
LATEST STATEMENTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE
COAST OF SENEGAL, GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU. IT IS MOVING WEST
AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N TO
08N BETWEEN 16W AND THE SIERRA LEON/LIBERIA COAST. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION FOR THIS WAVE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 7
DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED EASTWARD TO NEAR 39W
FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. DRYNESS AT
LOW TO MID LEVELS ARE PROHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR
THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 54W FROM
20N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR
THE SALOUM DELTA NATIONAL PARK, THEN EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS 10N25W TO 08N34W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N34W
TO 09N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 16W
AND 29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 85 NM
ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE CREATING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE,
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG ENE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE FOUND AT THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND WATERS NEAR NEW ORLEANS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NNW WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND
OFFSHORE OF VERA CRUS, MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF, INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AT THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN
MORNING AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING NEAR
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUN AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, SUPPORTING SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE REST OF THE GULF INTO
NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NW WINDS WILL
OCCUR OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ THROUGH THIS EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVER HISPANIOLA TO WESTERN PANAMA. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 75W AND THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE TRADES
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND
THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FOUND AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NEXT WEEK. A LONG-PERIOD N TO
NE SWELL, GENERATED BY EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA AND FORMER
TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO, WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING ABOUT
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL.
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IMELDA AT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N49W TO 23N62W, THEN
CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1012 MB LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR AND UP
TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM
23N TO 26N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
OTHER THAN THE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO SE TO SW WINDS DOMINATE
WATERS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 44W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COAST, INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST BETWEEN 35W
AND 44W, AND NORTH OF 10N, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS WITH 5
TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS ARE SEEN. FROM 10N TO 23N
BETWEEN 44W AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND 6 TO 10 FT SEAS IN MIXED LARGE SWELL ARE NOTED.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE TO SW WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL OCCUR
OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS, GENERALLY
NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 70W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FARTHER EAST, STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO EARLY SAT, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXITING THE AFRICA COAST TODAY. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, AND THEN MOVE WESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM NEAR OR EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
CHAN
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