859
AXNT20 KNHC 041033
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT OCT 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0940 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC:
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES IMELDA AND HUMBERTO IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
S OF 31N, CREATING SEAS OF 16 TO 18 FT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER DOMINATE A
LARGE AREA, PARTICULARLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 42W AND 75W, AS RECENTLY
VERIFIED BY SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND,
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 12N. HIGH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 12 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 23N THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION, THIS SWELL EVENT WILL ALSO
SUSTAIN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
PROBABLE LOCAL COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG THE EAST-FACING SHORES OF
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA, THE NORTH AND EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE
BAHAMAS, AND THE NORTH-FACING SHORES ACROSS HISPANIOLA, PUERTO
RICO, AND THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER AGENCIES FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 19W,
MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 11N TO 14.5N AND EAST OF 21.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 02.5N TO
14.5N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND THEN
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM NEAR OR
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 41W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD.
IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS AT LOW TO MID LEVELS ARE PROHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 55W
FROM 20N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12.5N
TO 18N BETWEEN 47.5W AND 54W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 14N17W AND
CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N21W THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO
14N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 02.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 47.5W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANDROS ISLAND, BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 27N91W IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF, AND IS PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND E OF 94W.
SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE 5 TO 8 FT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND
WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF IT BETWEEN 82W AND 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE, AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH N WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE OCCURRING NEAR VERACRUZ, MEXICO. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, MAINLY NORTH OF 26N,
INTO EARLY SUN, AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, SOUTH FLORIDA, AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY SUN AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MON, SUPPORTING SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE GULF INTO NEXT
WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT AS LARGE N SWELL MOVES
THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES, INCLUDING THE MONA AND ANEGADA
PASSES. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
MONA PASSAGE, WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO
EASTERN PANAMA. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER MOST
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 16N BETWEEN THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE N TO NE SWELL,
GENERATED BY PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES IMELDA AND HUMBERTO,
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO SUN NIGHT.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OFFSHORE OF AFRICA AND INDUCING ACTIVE CONVECTION THERE. THE
WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM NEAR OR EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT THE LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELL EVENT CURRENTLY DOMINATING ATLANTIC SEAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
NE TO E WINDS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF MIAMI, AND OVER
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS, GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 70W. SEAS
ARE 8 TO 13 FT IN NE SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST, A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N45W, THEN CONTINUES SW TO
NEAR 22N64W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77.5W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE FRONT, MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
STATIONARY PORTION OF FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE N OF 29N
AND E OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 41.5W. VERY ROUGH SEAS, IN NORTHERLY
SWELL, FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH SEAS 12 FT AND HIGHER N OF 23N
BETWEEN 42W AND 75W. PEAK SEAS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W ARE
18 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEAS THERE
ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN BUILDING NW TO N SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS,
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 70W, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS
ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N55W TO 24N70W
TO THE NW BAHAMAS. LARGE N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY PREVIOUS
TROPICAL CYCLONES IMELDA AND HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
12N. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 23N THIS
WEEKEND, INCLUDING NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND THEN MOVE WESTWARD AFTER
THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM NEAR OR EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
STRIPLING
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