763
AXNT20 KNHC 042316
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN OCT 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC:
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES IMELDA AND HUMBERTO IN THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH OF 31N INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS INDICATED BY RECENT ALTIMETER DATA, THIS
SWELL EVENT IS STILL CREATING SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT N OF 25N AND W
OF 45W. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO COVER A LARGE AREA, ROUGHLY
N OF 19N W OF 40W AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION, THIS SWELL
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS, SIGNIFICANT
BEACH EROSION AND PROBABLE LOCAL COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG THE EAST-
FACING SHORES OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA, THE NORTH AND EAST-FACING
SHORES OF THE BAHAMAS, AND THE NORTH-FACING SHORES ACROSS HISPANIOLA,
PUERTO RICO, AND THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER AGENCIES FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE,
HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SEEN
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 42W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 56W
FROM 20N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE COASTAL
BORDER OF SENEGAL AND GUNIA-BISSAU, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 07N22W TO 09N31W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 09N31W TO 11N48W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, AND ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, REACHING
THE COAST OF TEXAS BY MONDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO
8 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND LOW. MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS EXIST OFFSHORE VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF 27N THROUGH SUN MORNING AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS BETWEEN A 1010 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF, A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS, AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUN,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
IN N SWELL ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC PASSAGES, INCLUDING
THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING
JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FLARED-UP OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA AS WELL AS OVER JAMAICA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE N SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS WILL ALSO FILTER THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SWELL EVENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N42W AND EXTENDS TO
TO 29N45W, THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A
1010 MB LOW AT THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, IN NORTHERLY
SWELL, FOLLOW THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNS FROM 31N29W TO 23N33W, AND IT IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE
WESTERN SAHARA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ABOVE MENTIONED SWELL EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS FROM COASTAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN OCEAN,
GENERALLY NORTH OF 10N, THIS WEEKEND. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 12 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 20N THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ROUGH SEAS PERSISTING NORTH OF 24N AND WEST
OF 60W THROUGH MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT, EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS, THROUGH AT LEAST TUE BEFORE
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH MIDWEEK.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page