951
AXNT20 KNHC 051815
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN OCT 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC:
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES IMELDA AND HUMBERTO IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS INDICATED BY RECENT ALTIMETER DATA, THIS
SWELL EVENT IS STILL PRODUCING 12 FT SEAS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W
AND 65W. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO COVER A LARGE AREA,
ROUGHLY N OF 10N AND W OF 30W TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS. IN ADDITION, THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND PROBABLE
LOCAL COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG THE EAST-FACING SHORES OF GEORGIA
AND FLORIDA, THE NORTH AND EAST-FACING SHORES OF THE BAHAMAS, AND
THE NORTH-FACING SHORES ACROSS HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO, AND THE
VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER AGENCIES
FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AL95:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 27.5N CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC, APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 27.5W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 06.5N27.5W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN
27.5W AND 35W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 44.5W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 58.5W
FROM 20N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15.5N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 15.5N16.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
06.5N27.5W, AL95, TO 060N33.5W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N33.5W TO 08N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 02N TO 11N EAST OF 22W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND
52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1009 MB LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 28N93.5W AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 28N87W TO 27N84W, AND CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE WARM FRONT, WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SE TO E WINDS AND 6
TO 8 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG S WINDS NOTED TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE OR WEAKER SE
TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF, WITH
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS NOTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS IN THE
SOUTHERN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
NORTH OF 27N WILL DECREASE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN BY LATE MON LEADING TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 75W. GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS
ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS
OVER THE REST OF THE BASIN, LEADING TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN, AS OBSERVED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA.
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
A LONG-PERIOD N SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, SUPPORTING MODERATE SEAS IN THE
EASTERN BASIN AND 8 FT SEAS IN THE PASSAGES. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
DOMINATE THE REST OF THE BASIN, AS OBSERVED VIA ALTIMETER AND BUOY
DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE N TO NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
WEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, AND MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PULSE FRESH
TO STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC, APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH THIS SYSTEM
THE END OF THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
THE LARGE SWELL EVENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A 1013 MB LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W, AND
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF, AND EASTWARD TO 23N70W TO 31N42W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA SHOW FRESH E WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS
FRONT OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA TO 55W, WITH STRONG WINDS NORTH OF
27N AND WEST OF 70W. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED
FROM 19N52.5W TO 15.5N54W, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE, RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE
REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, STEMMING FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36.5N21.5W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING OVER THIS REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, LARGE N TO NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 40W TO COASTAL FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS, GENERALLY NORTH OF 12N, THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT, EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS, THROUGH
LATE TUE BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH MIDWEEK. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC, APPROACHING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH THIS SYSTEM THE END OF THE WEEK.
ADAMS
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