150
AXNT20 KNHC 062303
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE OCT 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL95):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
09N37W, IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
37W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW PRESSURE. PEAK WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
TO 9 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOAT.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AL95, AN
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR
THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W,
MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 14N16W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N25W THEN WESTWARD TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 09N37W (AL95). SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM VERMILION BAY, LOUISIANA TO NEAR PORT
ARANSAS, TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IN
THE AREA, AND ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH IN THAT AREA. MODERATE E WINDS ARE
NOTED OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE TUE, BECOMING MODERATE NE TO E THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR INVEST AL95.
TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR A
TROUGH IN THAT AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERING THE REGION. FRESH SE WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTE
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF 5 TO 8 FT COMBINED SEAS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN DOWNSTREAM OF WHERE LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL FROM
THE ATLANTIC IS PENETRATING THROUGH THE MONA, ANEGADA, AND
GUADELOUPE PASSAGES. MODERATE TO ROUGH COMBINED SEAS ARE ALSO
NOTED ON THE ATLANTIC EXPOSURES OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE
N TO NE SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE N TO NE SWELL OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS WILL PULSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS, EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OR NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH THIS SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
INVEST AL95.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N40W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG AND
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT, AND ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
ANALYZED NORTH OF THE FRONT, MAINLY WEST OF 60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N55W TO NEAR
MARTINIQUE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N,
CENTERED ON 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N20W. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES BOTH IN THE
TROPICS AND OVER AFRICA RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
FROM 15N TO 25N AND EAST OF 25W. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN THIS REGION.
MUCH OF THE REMAINING TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS IN LARGE N TO NE SWELL ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT, EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND TO
THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THROUGH LATE TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THU AND FRI, AND
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SE
WATERS WITH THIS SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CHRISTENSEN
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