769
AXNT20 KNHC 071820
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE OCT 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM JERRY:
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS NEAR 11.5N 44.6W AT 07/1500Z
OR ABOUT 1140 NM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING
WEST AT 21 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS ARE
PEAKING BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FARTHER SOUTH FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. JERRY
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
TAKE JERRY TO BE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. JERRY IS GOING TO
STRENGTHEN STEADILY AND SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON A DAY OR
TWO. SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY, AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY ON JERRY, PLEASE VISIT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/CYCLONES/ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO:
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS RELATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD EASTERN MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AIDED BY ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION, THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS STATE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ STATE, INCLUDING THE EASTERN PARTS OF SAN LUIS POTOSL,
HIDALGO AND PUEBLA STATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE TAMAULIPAS/SAN LUIS POTSAL BORDER, AND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ STATE. WITH THE GROUND IN THE REGION ALREADY
SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL, THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST AND POSSIBLE FLOOD STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER AGENCY.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 19W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE COAST OF
GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM JERRY.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED WESTWARD TO
NEAR 62W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NEAR
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM THE
VIRGIN AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD TO 11N.
THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO RELOCATED WESTWARD TO NEAR
74W, FROM 20N SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI TO
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NEAR
JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST JUST
SOUTH OF DAKAR, THEN CURVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 10N23W TO
09N33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 17W AND 37W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA, COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
NEW ORLEANS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ARE
CREATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL AND THE
REST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF, AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS PERSIST AT THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODERATE
E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY, AND
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS WATERS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WHICH MIGHT AFFECT
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PUERTO RICO. CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
ARE NOTED AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRA BASIN.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN MIXED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING
ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM JERRY.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N42W AND 25N60W TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS,
THEN CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 150 NM ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH, INCLUDING THE GREAT
BAHAMA BANK AND BETWEEN FLORIDA AND CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT ARE SEEN NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. FROM 20N TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT BETWEEN 55W AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED. FARTHER EAST,
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS
AT 5 TO 6 FT IN MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL ARE SEEN. EAST OF
TROPICAL STORM JERRY, FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8
TO 11 FT ARE EVIDENT FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. WEST OF
JERRY, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO SE TO SW WINDS ALONG WITH 8 TO 11 FT
SEAS DOMINATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. FOR THE REST OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT
ARE PRESENT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM JERRY
WILL MOVE TO 12.3N 47.2W THIS EVENING, 13.5N 51.1W WED MORNING,
THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.9N 54.6W WED EVENING. IT
WILL REACH 16.5N 57.6W THU MORNING, 18.1N 60.0W THU EVENING, AND
THEN 19.8N 61.9W FRI MORNING. JERRY WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 24.4N 63.4W EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE,
ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH LATE TODAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DISSIPATES.
CHAN
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