274
AXNT20 KNHC 072226
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED OCT 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 46.4W AT 07/2100 UTC
OR 1030 NM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 20
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS ARE
PEAKING BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FT JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE CENTER. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THU AND FRI. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THU ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DUE TO JERRY. THIS RAINFALL BRINGS A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON THU, AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY ON JERRY, PLEASE VISIT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/CYCLONES/ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO:
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS RELATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD EASTERN MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AIDED BY ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION, THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS STATE SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ STATE, INCLUDING THE EASTERN PARTS OF SAN LUIS
POTOSL, HIDALGO AND PUEBLA STATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALLS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE TAMAULIPAS/SAN LUIS POTOSI BORDER, AND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ STATE. WITH THE GROUND IN THE
REGION ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL, THIS WILL GREATLY
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. PLEASE STAY UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AND POSSIBLE FLOOD STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER AGENCY.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 20W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 17W
AND 24W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM
16N TO 21N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FARTHER SOUTH FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W, MOVING
WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SENEGAL COAST JUST
SOUTH OF DAKAR, THEN CURVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 10N23W TO
09N33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 17W AND 37W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS FOLLOW A
TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE E WINDS AND 2 TO
4 FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF FOLLOW ANOTHER TROUGH SOUTH OF
MOBILE BAY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE BREEZES AND 1 TO 3
FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATER TODAY, AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WATERS
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH
MIGHT AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION, TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
NICARAGUA. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZES DOMINATE THE BASIN
THIS EVENING. NE SWELL FROM THE ATLANTIC IS PENETRATING THROUGH
THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES, SUPPORTING 3 TO 5 FT COMBINED SEAS
REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND NORTHEAST COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE IMPACT OF
JERRY ON THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THU AND FRI. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL
BASIN. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING
ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM JERRY.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N42W AND 25N60W TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS,
THEN CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT.
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND 7 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF
THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 7 TO 10 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, MAINLY NORTH OF 15N
AND EAST OF 30W. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED IN THIS REGION.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PRIMARILY IN
NORTHERLY SWELL PERSIST ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE THE MAIN IMPACT AREA
OF JERRY.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, JERRY WILL MOVE TO 12.8N 49.4W WED
MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.2N 53.0W WED
AFTERNOON, 15.5N 56.4W THU MORNING, 17.2N 59.3W THU AFTERNOON,
18.9N 61.2W FRI MORNING, AND 21.1N 62.6W FRI AFTERNOON. JERRY
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 25.8N 63.3W
SAT AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W TO 24N68W THEN THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MIDWEEK AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES.
CHRISTENSEN
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