419
AXNT20 KNHC 080601
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED OCT 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 49.8W AT 08/0600 UTC
OR 830 NM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 20
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS ARE
PEAKING BETWEEN 12 AND 17 FT NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM
SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND ABOUT 100 NM EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
JERRY GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JERRY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DUE TO JERRY. THIS RAINFALL BRINGS A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED
BY JERRY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY, THEN SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES ON
FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY ON JERRY, PLEASE VISIT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/CYCLONES/ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO:
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS RELATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD EASTERN MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AIDED BY ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION, THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS STATE SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ STATE, INCLUDING THE EASTERN PARTS OF SAN LUIS
POTOSL, HIDALGO AND PUEBLA STATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALLS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE TAMAULIPAS/SAN LUIS POTOSI BORDER, AND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ STATE. WITH THE GROUND IN THE
REGION ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL, THIS WILL GREATLY
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. PLEASE STAY UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AND POSSIBLE FLOOD STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER AGENCY.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 20W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 17N
TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W, MOVING
WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W, THEN CURVES
WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 06N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N30W TO
06N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 01N TO 05N
BETWEEN 26W AND 38.5W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE THE SE GULF
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION TO A TROUGH.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN THIS AREA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
1 TO 3 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT, AND SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WATERS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH
MIGHT AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY EAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.
NE SWELL FROM THE ATLANTIC IS PENETRATING THROUGH THE MONA AND
ANEGADA PASSAGES, SUPPORTING 3 TO 5 FT COMBINED SEAS REACHING THE
COAST OF CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND NORTHEAST COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE,
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS WILL PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC, JERRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING
NEAR 13.6N 51.5W WED MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.5N
58.3W THU MORNING, NEAR 19.8N 62.4W FRI MORNING, AND NEAR 22.1N
63.3W FRI EVENING. JERRY IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT
AS JERRY PASSES JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING
ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM JERRY.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N42W AND 25N66W, THEN CONTINUES AS A SHEARLINE
TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND 7
TO 10 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO OVER THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 7 TO
10 FT SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, MAINLY NORTH OF
15N AND EAST OF 30W. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED IN THIS REGION.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PRIMARILY IN
NORTHERLY SWELL PERSIST ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE THE MAIN IMPACT AREA OF
JERRY.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N55W TO 23N63W THEN THROUGH THE NW
BAHAMAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING NEAR 13.6N 51.5W WED MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 16.5N 58.3W THU MORNING, NEAR 19.8N 62.4W FRI
MORNING, AND NEAR 22.1N 63.3W FRI EVENING. JERRY WILL THEN CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 26.7N 63.6W SAT EVENING
AND TO NEAR 31.7N 60.1W SUN EVENING.
KRV
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