791
AXNT20 KNHC 081754
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED OCT 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 53.7W AT 08/1800 UTC
OR 590 NM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WNW AT 20
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS ARE
PEAKING ROUND 22 FT NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE CENTER,
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 47 AND 53W. THE FAST MOTION OF JERRY AND
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE CAUSED THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER OF JERRY TO BECOME EXPOSED JUST TO THE NW OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION, AND IS PREVENTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AT THIS
TIME. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JERRY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL MAXIMA TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS, BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO JERRY. THIS RAINFALL
BRINGS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY, THEN SPREAD WESTWARD
TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY ON JERRY, PLEASE VISIT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/CYCLONES/ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO:
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO TONIGHT, AND
THEREFORE ITS OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ENDING SOON.
REGARDLESS, AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.AIDED BY
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS STATE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ STATE, INCLUDING
THE EASTERN PARTS OF SAN LUIS POTOSI, QUERETARO AND HIDALGO
STATES. WITH THE GROUND IN THE REGION ALREADY SATURATED FROM
EARLIER RAINFALL, THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST AND POSSIBLE FLOOD STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
AGENCY.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 26W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WHERE THE WAVE AXIS MEETS THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 12N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W, MOVING
WEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS, MAINLY BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
15N17W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
10N21W TO 05N30W TO 03N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATES STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 130-150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W
AND 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE SE GULF, INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN E TO W TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 24N80W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE FOUND N
OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 27N OVER MOST OF THE GULF FROM 24N TO 29N,
WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE WINDS ARE FRESH TO
STRONG FROM THE NW IN THE VERACRUZ AREA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN
THIS AREA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
IT MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS OVER
THE SW GULF CONTINUE TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE GULF WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF
FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF SHOULD BE QUIESCENT ON THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT TROPICAL STORM
JERRY IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, SOUTH OF A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 24N-26N. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FADING
NE SWELL FROM THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BLEED THROUGH THE MONA AND
ANEGADA PASSAGES, SUPPORTING 4 TO 5 FT COMBINED SEAS, AND
REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND NORTHEAST COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM JERRY WILL MOVE TO 14.7N 55.1W
THIS EVENING, 16.1N 58.2W THU MORNING, 17.9N 60.5W THU EVENING
JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
20.0N 61.9W FRI MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, 22.5N
62.4W FRI EVENING, AND 25.1N 62.2W SAT MORNING. JERRY WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA EARLY
SUN. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS FROM JERRY WILL IMPACT THE
CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR SOME LARGE NE SWELL PUSHING INTO THE ANEGADA
AND MONA PASSAGES.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING
FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM JERRY.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N38W TO 27N50W TO
25N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE
FRONT E OF 70W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS BEHIND THE FRONT
CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 37N54W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND THE LINGERING FRONT IS PRODUCING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS NORTH OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 32N. AS OF 15Z, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE,
AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO THE FRONT BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.
FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 7 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, MAINLY NORTH OF 21N AND EAST OF
22W, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS, PRIMARILY IN NORTHERLY SWELL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE THE MAIN IMPACT AREA OF JERRY.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS, NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
AND DISSIPATES. TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING NEAR 14.2N 53.4W WED AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO
A HURRICANE NEAR 17.3N 59.5W THU AFTERNOON, REACH NEAR 21.1N 62.9W
FRI AFTERNOON, NEAR 23.6N 63.2W FRI NIGHT, AND NEAR 28.3N 63.0W
SAT NIGHT. JERRY WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NE AND EXITS TO THE NORTH OF 31N EARLY MON. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
SAT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT AND SUN.
GR/CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page