716
AXNT20 KNHC 051701
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED NOV 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08.5N13W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR
08N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N19W TO 10N40W TO THE COAST OF
GUYANA NEAR 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
04N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AS OF 1500 UTC, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF, AND EXTENDS FROM 26N90W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE STATE OF GEORGIA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE SE GULF WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN THE EASTERN GULF TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ON SUN AND WILL SWEEP OVER THE BASIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-TOPPED TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE
FRONT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT, AND FRESH
NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA. THESE WINDS ARE REACHING THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED BASED
ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL MODERATE, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE LEE OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS OVER CUBA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS WILL THEN PULSE IN THIS REGION INTO EARLY THU BEFORE THE
FRONT DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI,
WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. A LONG-PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL
LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE THU, WITH A
REINFORCING E SWELL SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N50W AND CONTINUES
SW TO NEAR 25N63W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
CONTINUES TO EASTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORES N OF 27N AND E OF 70W. MODERATE TO FRESH
SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 28N AND EAST OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND DOMINATES THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. E OF THE FRONT, A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR 26N35W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL, INCREASING TO MODERATE SPEEDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM 16N50W
TO 06N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE TROUGH
MEETS THE ITCZ. FARTHER E, A COLD FRONT CROSSES BETWEEN THE MADEIRA
AND THE CANARY ISLANDS AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N TO ABOUT 30N30W. ROUGH
SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
ROUGHLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THU AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD AND THE STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ROUGH
SEAS IN N TO NW SWELL WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO AREAS NORTH OF
23N AND EAST OF 75W THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND NORTH OF 20N ON THU.
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF
63W THROUGH THU MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF 65W BY FRI AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
GR
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