856
AXNT20 KNHC 052033
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU NOV 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SEAS
GREATER THAN 12 FT COVERING THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND
63W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 14 FT (4.0 M). THE AREA OF 12
FT SEAS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS
GENERALLY N OF 28N THROUGH FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT.
MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION OVER THESE WATERS, DEPENDING
ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 08N19W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N19W TO 10N39W TO 09N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND
52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, AND EXTENDS
FROM 26N89W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF, AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE SW GULF.
MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE E GULF WHILE LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST INTO EARLY FRI, AND MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRI AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN GULF EARLY FRI
THROUGH SAT MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ON SUN AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE
EASTERN EXTEND OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 2-4 FT
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE
IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO EARLY THU
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DISSIPATES.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI, WITH LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. A LONG-PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH SEAS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY FRI, WITH A
REINFORCING MIXED E SWELL SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS,
CURRENTLY BETWEEN 55W AND 63W.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N46W AND CONTINUES
SW TO NEAR 23N70W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT CONTINUES TO EASTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE N OF
30N AND E OF THE FRONT TO 42W. MODERATE WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FARTHER E,
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N13W TO 29N21W TO 31N32W. THIS FRONT
HAS USHERED IN A SET OF NW SWELL, WITH ROUGH SEAS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 26N. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N40W. LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HIGH CENTER. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT,
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THU AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD AND THE STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ROUGH SEAS IN
N TO NW SWELL WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO AREAS NORTH OF 23N AND
EAST OF 73W THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND NORTH OF 20N ON THU. SEAS
IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 63W
THROUGH THU MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF 65W BY FRI AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE
WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
AL
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