818
AXNT20 KNHC 060553
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU NOV 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SEAS
GREATER THAN 12 FT COVERING THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 37W AND
66W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 14 FT (4.0 M). THE AREA OF
12 FT SEAS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N
OF 27N THROUGH FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT. MARINERS SHOULD
USE EXTREME CAUTION OVER THESE WATERS, DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE
AND CARGO.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 08N16W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N16W TO 05N33W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND
32W, AND FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 33W AND 48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, AND
EXTENDS FROM 29N89W TO 24N92W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING OFFSHORE NEAR
23N89W. BOTH TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MERGE AND SLOWLY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST INTO EARLY FRI, AND
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
EAST OF THE COMBINED TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY FRI AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN, AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN
GULF EARLY FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON SUN AND WILL
SWEEP OVER THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GALES
ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO MON AND MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH
NE WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE
MODERATE TO 6 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI, WITH LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. A LONG-PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH SEAS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY FRI, WITH A
REINFORCING MIXED E SWELL SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH E
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN BY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NW SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N55W TO 24N65W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF
20N, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH INTO THU AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NW SWELL
WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO AREAS NORTH OF 23N AND EAST OF 70W
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND NORTH OF 20N ON THU. SEAS IN EXCESS OF
12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF 63W THROUGH THU
MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 65W
BY FRI AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS.
LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
RAMOS
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