320
AXNT20 KNHC 060844
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU NOV 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SEAS
GREATER THAN 12 FT COVERING THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W AND
60W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 15 FT AT 31N52W. THE AREA OF
12 FT SEAS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT. MARINERS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION OVER THESE WATERS, DEPENDING ON VESSEL
TYPE AND CARGO. LOOKING AHEAD, REINFORCING SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO
AROUND 12 FT ALONG 31N BETWEEN 37W AND 53W FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT,
BUT THE MAJORITY OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER SHOULD REMAIN N OF 31N.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR THE COAST
OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA AT 08N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N16W TO 04.5N35W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 17W AND 33W, AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 33W AND 48W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE SURINAME FROM
06N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 53.5W AND 56W ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED JUST TO THE E.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, ONE
FROM S-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO 24N92.5W, AND THE OTHER FROM
24.5N90.5W TO THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BOTH
TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS BASIN-WIDE, EXCEPT LOCALLY MODERATE
SEAS NEAR 26N88.5W IN THE NEARBY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST INTO EARLY FRI, AND MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGHS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRI AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN GULF EARLY FRI
THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED
TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON SUN AND WILL SWEEP OVER THE
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GALES ARE
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO MON AND MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL HAS BECOME
DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATED. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NEAR CANCUN AND
COZUMEL DUE TO REMNANT SUPPORT FROM THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED JUST S
OF PANAMA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE WINDS OVER THE BASIN, LOCALLY
FRESH IN THE S-CENTRAL WATERS AND ALSO S OF HISPANIOLA, EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE WINDS S OF 10N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND W OF 85W IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI, WITH LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. A LONG-PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH SEAS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY FRI, WITH A
REINFORCING MIXED E SWELL SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH E
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN BY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A LARGE
SET OF NORTHERLY SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION
WATERS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26.5N55W TO 21N77W NEAR EASTERN
CUBA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH. WINDS TO THE N OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE NOW GENTLE TO MODERATE
N OF THE BOUNDARY TO 31N. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NE OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT TO NEAR 31N40W WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH SW WINDS N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 35W. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 38W AND 68W MAINLY TO THE NW OF
THE FRONT. A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVERS THE WATERS
N OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 22N ALONG WITH 6-8 FT SEAS, WITH MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT
LOCALLY FRESH FROM 15N TO 30N OFFSHORE AFRICA TO 25W WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LOCALLY TIGHT. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT N OF 25N AND
E OF 30W ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS, AND 4-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TO A REMNANT TROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NW
SWELL NORTH OF 23N AND EAST OF 69W WILL REACH TO NORTH OF 20N
TODAY. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 27N AND
EAST OF 60W THROUGH THIS MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL BE REINFORCED
OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 65W BY FRI AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO
PUSH OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LEWITSKY
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