004
AXNT20 KNHC 061718
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU NOV 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A LARGE AND LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL EVENT
IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH
SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT COVERING THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 43W
AND 55W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 15 FT ALONG 31N. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION,
PARTICULARLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W THROUGH FRI BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION OVER
THESE WATERS, DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO. LOOKING AHEAD,
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS E
OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT, BUILDING SEAS TO 12-13 FT N OF 30N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 06N30W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N30W TO 05N45W TO NEAR THE SURINAME/GUYANA BORDER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 12W AND 15W, AND WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 14W AND 32W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO NEAR
26N91W. AS OF 1500 UTC, A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS ADDED TO THE
SURFACE MAP NEAR 25N91W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE LOW
WHILE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS THE RESULT OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, EAST OF THE
NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS, THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SAT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF ON SUN AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, AND GALE FORCE WINDS
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ BY EARLY
MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
63W/64W. A MODEST INVERTED-V PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF
PANAMA, AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W
AND 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT, WITH WINDS PULSING
TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE BASIN, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TONIGHT. A NEW E TO
SE SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A NW
SWELL EVENT THAT IS IMPACTING THE NE WATERS WITH ROUGH SEAS.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 31N38W, AND CONTINUES
SW TO NEAR 28N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL
CUBA. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS, WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED
TO THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE PROPAGATING MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N
AND E OF 65W. A BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS. FARTHER E, HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST W OF
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1023 MB IS
ANAYLZED NEAR 25N31W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 65W TODAY, AND WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N BY TONIGHT. A NEW NW SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REINFORCE ROUGH
SEAS EAST OF 65W FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI,
WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH E WINDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF 25N FRI NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS MAY DEVELOP
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
GR
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