629
AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI NOV 07 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL, WITH
WAVE PERIODS OF 13-14 SECONDS IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT NORTH 26N
BETWEEN 51W AND A LINE FROM 31N37W TO 26N44W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
PEAKING NEAR 15 FT (4.5 M) ALONG 31N. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI, ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO LOWER BELOW 12 FT.
MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION OVER THESE WATERS, DEPENDING
ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS EAST OF 55W BY FRI NIGHT, BRIEFLY
BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT NORTH OF 30N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 40 AND 47W
THROUGH EARLY SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
08N24W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 05N30W TO 03N38W AND
O NEAR 04N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 16W-19W AND WITHIN
60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-32W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N91W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
18.5N93W. TO ITS NORTHEAST, A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED
GRADIENT IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS NORTH
OF 25N AND MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS
OVER THE BASIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF
3 TO 4 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
TEXAS COAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BASIN ON FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF ON SUN AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
BASIN INTO MON EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, AND GALE- FORCE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-WIDE BY TUE
EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA.
SEAS ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM NEAR 14N82W
TO 10N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 11N TO 14N. A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IS NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
PULSING TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE BASIN, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS IN NORTH
WELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
LATE TONIGHT. A NEW EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL SET WILL SUPPORT
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A NW
SWELL EVENT THAT IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
VERY ROUGH SEAS.
A COLD FRONT IS ANAYLZED FROM NEAR 31N33W TO 30N40W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
TO NEAR 21.5N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EVIDENT NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WEST OF ABOUT 65W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF
OF THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
26N40W AND BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29.5N26W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF 18N. A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 07N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W
AND TROUGH, AND ALSO WEST OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 57W FROM 10N TO
13N. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES GENERALLY
DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF
22N EAST OF 51W, AND NORTH OF 19N WEST OF 51W, EXCEPT FOR AN AREA
OF GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS SOUTH OF 27N WEST OF 70W. THE
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE MOSTLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF 22N EAST OF 51W AND SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 51W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ASIDE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, SEAS GREATER THAN
8 FT COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN A LINE FROM 29N35W TO
20N56W AND 64W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE EAST OF
72W, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT EAST OF 50W AND LOWER
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WEST OF 72W AND 3 FT OR LESS WITHIN THE AREA OF
THE BAHAMAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS IN NORTH SWELL WILL
EXPAND EAST OF 65W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N
TONIGHT. A NEW NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS EAST OF 65W FRI
MORNING THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI, WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH E
WINDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF 25N FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA
LATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AGUIRRE
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