094
AXNT20 KNHC 071016
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI NOV 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1010 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL, WITH
WAVE PERIODS OF 13-14 SECONDS IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT NORTH 26N
BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 13 FT ALONG
31N. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
SEAS TO LOWER BELOW 12 FT. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
OVER THESE WATERS, DEPENDING ON VESSEL TYPE AND CARGO. ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS EAST OF 55W BY
TONIGHT, BRIEFLY BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT NORTH OF 30N ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 40W AND 47W THROUGH EARLY SAT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
08N23W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 04N32W TO 01N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N
TO 11N BETWEEN 08W AND 30W, AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N91W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
18.5N93W. TO ITS NORTHEAST, A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED
GRADIENT IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS NORTH OF 22N,
AND MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS
OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE OVER THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF, NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS, THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF ON SUN AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASIN INTO MON
EVENING. WIDESPREAD STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-WIDE BY TUE EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE SEA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 13N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE AFFECTING THE NE CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
PULSING TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO MON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS
IN MIXED N AND E SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND
INTO LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MON, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS TUE
EVENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A NW
SWELL EVENT THAT IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
VERY ROUGH SEAS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N34W TO 28N60W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N40W
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NORTH OF 18N.
ASIDE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVER THE WATERS
NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 61W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND EAST OF 60W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N TODAY. A NEW NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS EAST OF 60W THIS
MORNING THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH E
WINDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF 25N TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO
FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, LEADING TO FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED.
RAMOS
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