032
AXNT20 KNHC 071627
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI NOV 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 09N24W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 04N35W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 08N
BETWEEN 05W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF REGION. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS ALSO COVERS THE NW GULF AND NE
MEXICO. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE BASIN WHILE MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER
THE NW GULF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN, PER SCATTEROMETER
DATA, OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE BASIN, HIGHEST
OVER THE NW GULF AND NEAR WESTERN CUBA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN GULF, MAINLY BETWEEN
22N AND 26W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF SUN AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD, EXITING THE BASIN MON EVENING.
WIDESPREAD STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-
WIDE BY TUE EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE SEA. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE. LIGHT TO GENTLE E
TO SE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS,
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW-TOPPED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
PULSING TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN AND
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MON,
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED N AND E SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES INTO LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MON, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM E CUBA TO E
HONDURAS TUE EVENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC,
AND EXTENDS FROM 30N35W TO 27N60W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST E OF
THE BAHAMAS. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED OFFSHORE
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG
31N AND W OF 60W. A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 26N42W, DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES,
AND RUNS FROM 17N53W TO 08N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E
WINDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. THESE
WINDS COVER THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 45W. ROUGH SEAS OF 8
TO 12 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WATERS N OF
20N AND E OF 60W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N
TO 24N E OF 23W DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST S OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER NW AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL IMPACT
WATERS SE OF BERMUDA TO ABOUT 20N THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY, WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH E WINDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF 25N
TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, LEADING TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WED.
GR
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