322
AXNT20 KNHC 072052
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT NOV 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2050 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 08N24W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 20W
AND 39W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF REGION. MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE FAR NW GULF, WITH GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE NW GULF, AND 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH SAT AS A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF SUN MORNING AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD, EXITING THE BASIN MON AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FROCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN- WIDE BY
TUE EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AND 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY, AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST IN
THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING LATE SAT. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH
SEAS IN MIXED N AND E SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MON, LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM E CUBA TO E
HONDURAS TUE EVENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST E
OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG
31N AND W OF 60W. A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 28N40W, DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, FROM
18N56W TO 09N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HIGH CENTER. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE W OF 60W.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-11
FT RANGE N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. ELSEWHERE E OF 60W, SEAS OF
6-8 FT ARE NOTED. W OF 60W, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL IMPACT
WATERS SE OF BERMUDA TO ABOUT 20N THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, LEADING TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
AL
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