063
AXNT20 KNHC 080552
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT NOV 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 10N18W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO 03N46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 200 NM OF BOTH THE ITCZ
AND MONSOON TROUGH.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING AS A RESULT OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA, COSTA RIVA, AND
NICARAGUA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH
S TO SW WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE NW GULF, WITH GENTLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FAR WESTERN BASIN THROUGH SAT AS A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF SUN MORNING AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD, EXITING THE BASIN MON AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FROCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-WIDE BY
TUE EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 79 AND
81W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG
TRADES OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AND 2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY, AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING LATE SAT. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH
SEAS IN MIXED N AND E SWELL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MON, LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM E CUBA TO E
HONDURAS TUE EVENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST E
OF THE BAHAMAS OUT TO ABOUT 66W. A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 29N30W, DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES, FROM 18N57W TO 09N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING S
OF 20N AND ALSO E OF 30W. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. RECENT SEA STATE ANALYSIS AND ALTIMETER DATA
SHOW A SWATH OF ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING NE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES,
GENERALLY N OF 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF ROUGH
SEAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL IMPACT
WATERS SE OF BERMUDA TO ABOUT 20N THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
FRESH S TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, LEADING TO STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ADAMS
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