055
AXNT20 KNHC 081038
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT NOV 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 10N18W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ, WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N30W TO
02N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 210 NM
OF BOTH THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING AS A RESULT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF, WHICH IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. OTHERWISE, A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL BASIN-WIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SUN MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD,
EXITING THE BASIN MON AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FROCE N TO NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, AND GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ
MON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-WIDE BY TUE EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF E
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE MODERATE, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE, AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ON MON. ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
INTO MON AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE TUE. LOOKING
AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
LATE MON, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS TUE EVENING WHERE IT
WILL STALL BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 26N57W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF THE FRONT OR 26N
BETWEEN 50W AND 75W. THE REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH, WHICH IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS W OF 40W AND MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO E
WINDS E OF 40W. OTHERWISE, LARGE N SWELL IS SUPPORTING A BROAD
AREA OF 8 TO 12 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC,
WITH 8 TO 9 FT SEAS EXTENDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, LARGE NW SWELL TO 12 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA SUN MORNING WILL REACH FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS SUN NIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SE
AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA TUE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLING FROM 27N63W TO E CUBA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
RAMOS
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