994
AXNT20 KNHC 081751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT NOV 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1640 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE BASIN
AND EXIT MON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 10/1200 UTC, WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO THE COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N
TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PROVIDES FOR MODERATE OR WEAKER
S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF, NEAR THE BIG BEND OF
FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE TONIGHT, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE BASIN AND EXIT MON.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FROCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN- WIDE
BY TUE EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION,
MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND
PANAMA. MODERATE TRADES, AND 3-6 FT SEAS, PREVAIL ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHERE TRADES ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INTO MON. ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO MON AND
THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM E CUBA TO E
HONDURAS TUE EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL BEFORE IT STARTS TO
WEAKEN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, FROM 31N43W TO 27N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N73W TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED
NEAR 60W, FROM 18N TO 12N, MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES NORTH OF 20N, AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 20N.
EAST OF 55W, NW SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 12-15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH SEAS OF 7-11 FT. WEST OF
55W, SEAS ARE 4-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA SUN MORNING WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS SUN NIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SE AND
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA TUE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLING FROM 27N63W TO E CUBA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS
IN W TO NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF 29N MON NIGHT INTO
TUE, ESPECIALLY W OF 70W.
MAHONEY
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