957
AXNT20 KNHC 082338
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN NOV 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE BASIN
AND EXIT MON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 10/1200 UTC, WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 11.5N15.5W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 18N BETWEEN 16W AND 47W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER S TO SW WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE EAST-CENTRAL BASIN NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N87W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE TONIGHT, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE BASIN AND EXIT MON.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-WIDE
BY TUE EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION, MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3
FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. ROUGH SEAS IN
N SWELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO MON AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
TUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON,
BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA, PARTICULARLY HONDURAS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO
26N76W, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING TO
THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE, GENERALLY NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF 60W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THIS AREA AS A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION STRENGTHENS. WEST OF 70W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 2 TO 4
FT SEAS PREVAIL. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
REST OF THE OPEN ATLANTIC. EAST OF 57W, NW SWELL WITH PERIODS OF
12-16 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN,
WITH SEAS OF 7-11 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA SUN MORNING WILL REACH FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS SUN NIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SE
AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA TUE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLING FROM 27N63W TO E CUBA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS
IN W TO NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF 29N MON NIGHT INTO
TUE, ESPECIALLY W OF 70W.
ADAMS
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