335
AXNT20 KNHC 090547
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN NOV 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE BASIN
AND EXIT MON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 10/1200 UTC, ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. FOR
MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A SHEARLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA AND HONDURAS, ENHANCING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS GUATEMALA, BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA. THE
SHEARLINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ON MONDAY, AND WILL INTERACT
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
BY TUESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE IN GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, AND
BELIZE ON TUESDAY MORNING, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT, AND WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY THE
INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 46W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER S
TO SW WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS. NO NOTABLE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE TONIGHT, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE BASIN AND EXIT MON.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUST TO
GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NW GULF BEGINNING SUN MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MON MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-
WIDE BY TUE EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION, MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COASTS OF HONDURAS, NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. ROUGH SEAS IN
N SWELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO MON AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
TUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON,
BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA, PARTICULARLY HONDURAS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE, GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 60W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT
SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS AREA AS A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH
OF THE REGION STRENGTHENS. WEST OF 70W, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 05N AND 25N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA
AND 62W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. EAST OF 60W, NW SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 12-16 SECONDS
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH SEAS OF 7-11
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA SUN MORNING WILL REACH FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS SUN NIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SE
AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA TUE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLING FROM 27N63W TO E CUBA TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS IN
W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF 30N MON NIGHT INTO LATE
TUE, ESPECIALLY W OF 65W. WINDS THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH WED.
ADAMS
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