531
AXNT20 KNHC 091038
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN NOV 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING:
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN QUICKLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE BASIN AND EXIT BY MON EVENING.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON MORNING THROUGH MON NIGHT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 10/1200 UTC AND END 11/03
UTC. PEAK SEAS OFF VERACRUZ ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 16 FT BY MON
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUST TO GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR THE NW GULF BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MON MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-WIDE BY TUE
EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A SHEARLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND HONDURAS, ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
GUATEMALA, BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA. THE SHEARLINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ON MONDAY, AND WILL INTERACT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA BY
TUESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE IN GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, AND
BELIZE ON TUESDAY MORNING, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT, AND WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY THE
INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 07N34W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE
COAST OF AFRICA AND 47W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE BASIN AND
EXIT BY MON EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON MORNING THROUGH MON
NIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE
NW GULF BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-WIDE BY TUE EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS, ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF HONDURAS, NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND
THROUGH PUERTO RICO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. OTHERWISE, A PREVALENT RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BASIN CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF FRESH
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN THESE REGIONS. MODERATE OR
WEAKER TRADES ARE ONGOING IN THE NW BASIN WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS IN EAST SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE MORNING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MON
AFTERNOON, BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS LATE TUE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED
EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE STRONG WINDS AND SEAS, THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE NE AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
GULF OF AMERICA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS GENERATING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS OFFSHORE WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES HIGH THAT IS
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N40W. FROM 20N TO 27N AND E OF
53W, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE NE TO E AND SEAS ARE 8
TO 11 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE N OF 20N AND W OF
53W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL REACH FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SE
AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA TUE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLING FROM 27N65W TO E CUBA TUE EVENING
INTO WED. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON EVENING THROUGH LATE TUE. GALE
CONDITIONS IN W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF 30N MON
EVENING INTO LATE TUE, FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF 65W. WINDS
THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page