439
AXNT20 KNHC 092333
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN NOV 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING:
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH THE BASIN AND EXIT
BY MON EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON MORNING THROUGH MON
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AT 10/1200 UTC AND
END 11/03 UTC. PEAK SEAS OFF VERACRUZ ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 15
FT BY MON EVENING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH MON
MORNING, AND OVER THE CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BASIN THROUGH
LATE MON NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-WIDE BY TUE
EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A SHEARLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY ON MON OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND HONDURAS, ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
GUATEMALA, BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA. THE SHEARLINE WILL
MOVE SOUTH ON MONDAY, AND WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OFF
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA BY TUESDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL THEN ARRIVE IN GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, AND BELIZE ON TUESDAY
MORNING, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE
OF SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT, AND WILL RAISE
CONCERNS FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS
INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 09N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N18W TO
05N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 17W AND 31W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF AMERICA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE
U.S. MEXICO BORDER NEAR 25N97W. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN GULF ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE N TO NW WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
REST OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH SLIGHT SEAS
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE U.S. MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EXIT THE BASIN MON. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE- FORCE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MON MORNING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO MON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN-
WIDE BY TUE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE EASTERN END OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION, ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
HONDURAS, NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N70W, AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR
THIS TROUGH. OTHERWISE, A PREVALENT RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
BASIN CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF FRESH
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS TO 8 FT IN THESE REGIONS. LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES ARE ONGOING IN THE NW
BASIN WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS IN EAST SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MON NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MON, BRINGING
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN ITS WAKE. THE
FRONT WILL STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS TUE AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE STRONG WINDS
AND SEAS, THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30.5N77.5W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE NE AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30.5N63W TO
28N67.5W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES HIGH THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N39W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT NORTH OF 17N AND EAST OF 50W. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH
SEAS IN E SWELL PREVAILS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA BY LATE THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SE AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA TUE, THEN EXTEND FROM
31N55W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY WED. NW GALES AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF 29N MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH HAVING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND STALLS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
ADAMS
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