247
AXNT20 KNHC 110526
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE NOV 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0450 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING:
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
HONDURAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT IS FORCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO
NE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE GULF TONIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS AND
SEAS AROUND 15 FT LINGERING ACROSS THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE VERACRUZ AREA. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED NW
TO N WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST, S OF
20.5N TO NEAR PUNTA ROCA PARTIDA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH JUST BELOW GALE-FORCE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND THEN
BELOW 30 KT LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BASIN WIDE BY
TUE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT, AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 31N72W THROUGH
THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 79W. FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 31N THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA, N OF 29N. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, THESE GALES WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE, AND REMAIN NORTH OF
29N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-16 WITHIN THESE AREA OF
WINDS THROUGH LATE TUE. ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TUE
NIGHT, PRODUCING LARGE NW SWELL AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT. BY LATE
WED, THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 31N55W THROUGH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN CUBA, WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
LATE WEEK. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OFF OF NE
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME, LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE FRONT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE WARNINGS, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
TONIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY WED.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE, LEADING TO AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
GUATEMALA, BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS GUATEMALA, BELIZE
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH GUATEMALA,
AND HONDURAS ON TUE MORNING, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS
PROVIDED BY THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR DAKAR, SENEGAL ALONG
15N17.5W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 06.5N20W THEN TO 08N26W.
THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 06N39W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 20W
AND 44W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN TONIGHT. RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE N
WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN, WITH WINDS TO
GALE-FORCE DEPICTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND REGION, AND NEAR GALE-FORCE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ROUGH AND BUILDING SEAS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT, PRODUCING SEAS OF 8
TO 14 FT ACROSS EAST, CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS, AND 10 TO 15
FT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS ARE 7 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE NE GULF AND N OF 26N TO THE W OF 90W.
REACHING FROM KEY LARGO, FLORIDA TO CANCUN, MEXICO. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED 40 KT WINDS OFF VERACRUZ,
MEXICO AND MOSTLY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 10 TO 13
FT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF, AND 7 TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NW GALES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR VERACRUZ, MEXICO. NEAR- GALE
FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE NE BASIN. FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED,
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE,
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE NW GULF BY THIS WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASIN TONIGHT,
AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W TO 20.5N84W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND THEN WESTWARD AND INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N WINDS BEHIND THE ENTIRE FRONT FROM CUBA TO BELIZE, WITH
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT IN
BUILDING NORTHERLY SWELL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 4 TO 7 FT
AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND W OF THE
FRONT TO THE COAST OF BELIZE.
FURTHER SOUTH, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EASTERN END OF THE
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 77W AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA, NICARAGUA AND NE
HONDURAS. FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA, WHERE SEAS
ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN OPEN WATERS. E OF 77W, RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH E TRADE WINDS, AND STRONG WINDS S
OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT E OF 70W AND 6 TO
10 FT W OF 70W, EXCEPT FOR 2 TO 3 FT SOUTH OF CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
WILL STALL TUE FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS, THEN WEAKEN AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR GALE NW TO N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL,
AND WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED. ASIDE
FROM THE STRONG WINDS AND SEAS, THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THU. STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TUE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC BEGINNING TONIGHT.
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N72W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND
TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 79W. FRESH SW WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO 68W, TO THE N OF 27N. SEAS ARE 6 TO 10 FT IN BUILDING NW
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE FRESH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N51W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 9 FT
SEAS DOMINATE THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 25N. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE BREEZES AND LONG- PERIOD NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT, THEN STALL OVER THE SE WATERS INTO
LATE THIS WEEK. GALES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N
TONIGHT, THEN SPREAD EAST AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE, ALONG WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS. S OF 29N AND BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG N WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND
WEAKENS, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OFF OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA, LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS TO MODERATE TO
FRESH ON WED. ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR WATERS E OF
65W THROUGH THU.
STRIPLING
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