054
AXNT20 KNHC 111034
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE NOV 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO 22N79W. GALE-FORCE NW WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT, MAINLY N OF 29N. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, THESE GALES WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD BEHIND IT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-16 WITHIN
THESE AREA OF WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT,
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, PRODUCING LARGE NW SWELL AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14
FT. BY LATE WED, THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 31N55W THROUGH THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN CUBA, WHERE IT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH LATE WEEK. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD OFF OF NE FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME, LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE
FRONT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WARNING, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
TONIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY WED.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE, LEADING TO AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
GUATEMALA, BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND NICARAGUA DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS GUATEMALA, BELIZE
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH GUATEMALA,
AND HONDURAS ON TUE MORNING, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS
PROVIDED BY THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG 14N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 08N26W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT
TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE NW
CORNER, WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE NE WINDS ARE NOTED. ROUGH AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE WINDS,
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS EAST, CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS, AND 10 TO 14 FT ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS ARE 7
FT OR LESS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE NE GULF AND N OF 26N
TO THE W OF 90W. REACHING FROM KEY LARGO, FLORIDA TO CANCUN,
MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, NEAR-GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NE
BASIN. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EAST OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE NW GULF BY
THIS WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE W CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING FROM
22N80W TO 16N88W. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT IN BUILDING NORTHERLY
SWELL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 4 TO 7 FT AND QUICKLY
BUILDING SEAS ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT TO THE
COAST OF BELIZE.
FURTHER SOUTH, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE EASTERN END OF THE
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 77W AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA, NICARAGUA AND NE
HONDURAS. FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA, WHERE SEAS
ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN OPEN WATERS. E OF 77W, RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH E TRADE WINDS, AND STRONG WINDS S
OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT E OF 70W AND 6 TO
10 FT W OF 70W, EXCEPT FOR 2 TO 3 FT SOUTH OF CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL STALL TODAY FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS, THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE STRONG WINDS AND SEAS, THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST THU. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC.
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO 22N79W. FRESH SW WINDS PREVAIL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 65W, TO THE N OF 27N. SEAS ARE 8 TO 14 FT
IN BUILDING NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE FRESH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N70W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. TO THE E, A 1018 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 31N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
29N45W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 9 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE
OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 25N. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE BREEZES AND
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN STALL OVER THE SE WATERS INTO LATE THIS
WEEK. GALE FORCE NW WINDS, ALONG WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS,
WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. S OF 29N, STRONG N WINDS
AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE. AS THE FRONT STALLS
AND WEAKENS, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH WED, BUT
ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL CONTINUE FOR WATERS E OF 65W THROUGH
THU.
ERA
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