576
AXNT20 KNHC 112229
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED NOV 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, CUBA, THE
CARIBBEAN, BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND GUATEMALA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW, PARTICULARLY
INTO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, BRINGING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THU. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, GENERALLY WEST OF 75W AND SOUTH OF
20N. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM A NE
FLOW TO AN E FLOW, AND WILL BEGIN TO INJECT MOISTURE FARTHER
NORTH INTO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING ON WED. AN
ACTIVATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA THROUGH THU EVENING. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN
INCREASING TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
6 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS, AND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY
THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ ENTERS THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN AS A 1030 MB HIGH STRENGTHENS IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF THE U.S., AND A 1028 MB HIGH PERSISTS OVER
TAMPICO, MEXICO. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, AS OBSERVED
VIA EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY
DATA SHOWED ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION, WITH ONE SHIP
REPORTING VERY ROUGH SEAS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH
NW WINDS ALSO PREVAIL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN OFFSHORE OF
VERACRUZ. OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS AND 2 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT LOCATED
SE OF THE AREA AND A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE
OF THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES TO NORTH FLORIDA. AT THE
SAME TIME, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWED
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND GULF OF HONDURAS. RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE OCCURRING
IN THIS REGION, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT OFFSHORE OF
BELIZE AND HONDURAS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY
DATA SHOW 5 TO 7 FT SEAS OVER THIS REGION, WITH SEAS 7 TO 8 FT
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA BY
THIS EVENING, THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN, THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N. WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE N TO
NE WINDS PERSIST WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH 12
TO 17 FT SEAS. MODERATE N WINDS AND 7 TO 12 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE WEST OF FRONT.
FARTHER EAST, A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N43W. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES FROM NEAR PORTUGAL TO THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO 28N50W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND 7 TO 8 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. WEAK RIDGING PERSIST ELSEWHERE,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM
31N61W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THIS EVENING, THEN STALL FROM
31N55W TO EASTERN CUBA ON WED. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO END BY TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS ON
WED, BUT ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS ON FRI.
CHRISTENSEN
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