143
AXNT20 KNHC 120521
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED NOV 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, EASTERN
CUBA, THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W, TO HONDURAS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW, PARTICULARLY
INTO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, BRINGING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THU. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
IN THE W CARIBBEAN, GENERALLY W OF 78W AND S OF 20N. AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE ATLANTIC, THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM A NE FLOW TO AN E
FLOW, AND WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT MOISTURE INTO BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED. AN ACTIVATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW
WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA, AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THROUGH THU EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN INCREASING TOTAL PRECIPITATION.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS, AND IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY THE INTERNATIONAL
DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N17W TO 07N38W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 15N AND E OF 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N87W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND A FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM SW FLORIDA ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THIS REGION. FRESH NW WINDS ALSO PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY WED
MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD
NORTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MEANDER ABOUT THE NE AND N CENTRAL
GULF WED THROUGH SAT, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE CUBA THROUGH E HONDURAS.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE NE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE LEE OF CUBA
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GULF OF HONDURAS. RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 10 TO
14 FT OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE REST OF THE BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA. RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW 5 TO 7 FT SEAS OVER
THIS REGION, WITH SEAS 7 TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THIS TIME. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 81W-82W WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN, THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU MORNING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STRONG FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AND EASTERN CUBA. WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE
ALONG THE FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS PERSIST
WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH 12 TO 18 FT SEAS.
MODERATE N WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WEST OF
FRONT.
FARTHER EAST, A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES FROM 31N23N TO 28N32W TO 30N41W TO THE
LOW. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO 29N51W. MODERATE TO
FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND 7 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE
FRONT. WEAK RIDGING PERSIST ELSEWHERE, SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADE
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PORTION OF THE FRONT E OF 67W
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH WED,
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT S
OF 25N, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND 70W. LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT PRODUCING SEAS OF 10 TO 19 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA WILL EXTEND A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N, AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS S OF 25N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LARGE NW
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD OF 55W ON THU. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS ON FRI.
ERA
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