823
AXNT20 KNHC 121038
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED NOV 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TO THE N COAST OF
HONDURAS. STRONG N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT, WHILE A
LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 81W TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
SCENARIO IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW, PARTICULARLY
INTO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA, LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE W CARIBBEAN, GENERALLY W OF 80W AND
S OF 18.5N, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE N COAST AND COASTAL WATERS OF
PANAMA. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 70W, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A NE TO AN E DIRECTION, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INJECT MOISTURE INTO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED. AN
ENHANCED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA, AND THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THROUGH THU EVENING.
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS.
THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY THE
INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 07.5N35W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 05.5N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 15N AND E OF
31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 31W AND 44W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W OVER THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS FROM SW FLORIDA ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT PREVAIL OVER THIS AREA.
NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND
ARE LIGHT OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED W OF 94W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. LIGHT WINDS AND AND MODERATE OR LESS SEAS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS FROM SW
FLORIDA ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA .
WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY MIDDAY WED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO BUILD A NARROW RIDGE
EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NW GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MEANDER ABOUT THE NE
AND N CENTRAL GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED WIDESPREAD
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE
LEE OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO GULF OF
HONDURAS. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION, WITH
SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA. RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS OVER THE WATERS E OF 72W, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, THEN DRIFT NW AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 81W WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
COASTAL ZONES, FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO PANAMA, THROUGH AT LEAST THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE E-SE INTO THE W ATLANTIC
ALONG 27N-28N OVER THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N59W TO 25N66W THEN BECOME
STATIONARY THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 28N
HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE, AND ARE NOW FRESH, WHILE
STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY
PORTION OF THE FRONT, AND INTO CENTRAL CUBA, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO
12 FT. LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT DOMINATES THE
SEAS W OF THE FRONT, PRODUCING VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 10 TO 17 FT,
HIGHEST ALONG 67W IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH 12 TO 18 FT
SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE WEST OF 76W AND INTO THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
FARTHER EAST, A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N44W AND
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES FROM 31N19N TO
26N30W TO THE LOW. A COLD FRONT IS THEN ANALYZED WESTWARD, FROM
THE LOW TO 24.5N49W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LOW NEAR
34N43W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NW WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT SEAS IN N
SWELL ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT, BETWEEN THE LOW AND 30W. WEAK
RIDGING PERSIST ELSEWHERE, SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
EXTENDING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT E OF
67W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN QUICKLY TODAY, WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU EVENING. STRONG N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 25N, WHILE FRESH NW WINDS ARE N OF 25N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 70W. LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 10 TO 17 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA WILL EXTEND A NARROW
RIDGE EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THU.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF
25N TODAY, AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS S OF 25N TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH THU. THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD OF
55W ON THU. LOOKING AHEAD, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND IT.
STRIPLING
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