593
AXNT20 KNHC 121753
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED NOV 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TO THE N COAST OF
HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW,
PARTICULARLY INTO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA,
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE W CARIBBEAN, GENERALLY W
OF 80W AND S OF 18.5N, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE N COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS OF PANAMA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY THURSDAY, WEAKENING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LEADING TO LESS PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
HONDURAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN BELIZE AND SOUTHERN QUINTANA
ROO-MEXICO FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOWER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE- THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY
THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AGADIR GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
STATIONARY LOW IN THE NE ATLANTIC AND HIGHER PRESSURES OVER N
AFRICA AND N ITALY WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE SW WINDS OFFSHORE AGADIR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED, AND METEO-FRANCE HAS
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE AGADIR ZONE FROM 13/06 UTC THROUGH
AT LEAST 13/12 UTC.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO METEO-FRANCE'S WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N16W TO 08N39W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 06N57.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 14N AND E OF 37W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH REACHES
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING GENERALLY S OF 14N AND W OF 76W,
LIKELY ALSO ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE REGION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1029 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. THIS
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND IN THE SE GULF, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 88W. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN, WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAILING IN
THE NE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS, THROUGH FRI AS A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH S TO
SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN EACH AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TO THE N
COAST OF HONDURAS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, STRONGEST OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA. SEAS ACROSS
ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS RANGE FROM 6-10 FT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU MORNING AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA, WITH LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES, THOUGH LOCALLY FRESH
NE WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SAT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND COASTAL
ZONES THROUGH THU, FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA TO PANAMA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N57W TO 25N65W THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WINDS TO THE N AND W OF THE FRONT ARE FROM
THE N TO NE, SUSTAINED AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS. ROUGH SEAS ARE
ANALYZED N OF 21N BETWEEN 57W AND 73W, WITH SEAS OF 13-15 FT
OCCURRING N OF 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 69W.
FARTHER EAST, A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N44W AND IS
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES FROM 31N16W TO
25N30W TO THE LOW. A COLD FRONT IS THEN ANALYZED SOUTH AND WESTWARD,
FROM THE LOW TO 24N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IMPACTING
MUCH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
BETWEEN 25N AND THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LOW
NEAR 34N43W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NW WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FT SEAS
IN N SWELL ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT AND E OF 45W. WEAK RIDGING
PERSISTS ELSEWHERE, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS EXTENDING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56.5W
TO 25.5N65W, WHERE IS BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO
25N THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONTS SLOWLY DISSIPATE. WIDESPREAD
ROUGH SEAS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH
THU, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
23N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO FRI. ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT
PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATER TODAY WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
29N BY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING
FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EAST OF 70W BY THU NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
ADAMS
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