122
AXNT20 KNHC 130456
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU NOV 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TO THE N COAST OF
HONDURAS. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW,
PARTICULARLY INTO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA,
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN,
GENERALLY WEST OF 80W AND SOUTH OF 20N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY
THURSDAY, WEAKENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LEADING TO LESS
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN HONDURAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
BELIZE AND SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO-MEXICO FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS
PROVIDED BY THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AGADIR GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
STATIONARY LOW IN THE NE ATLANTIC AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER N
AFRICA AND N ITALY WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE SW WINDS OFFSHORE AGADIR OVERNIGHT. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE
FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED, AND METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING
FOR THIS ZONE FROM 13/03 UTC THROUGH AT LEAST 13/18 UTC.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO METEO-FRANCE'S WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N17W TO 08N41W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 18N AND E OF 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 29N86W TOWARD TAMPICO, MEXICO. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS
NORTH OF RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS, AND FRESH NE WINDS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS, THROUGH LATE FRI AS A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TO PUERTO
BARRIOS, GUATEMALA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO
NEAR-GALE NE WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE E WINDS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, STRONGEST OFFSHORE
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL WEST OF 70W, AND MODERATE
SEAS EAST OF 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, NO CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES, THOUGH LOCALLY FRESH
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SAT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH WEST- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND COASTAL
ZONES THROUGH FRI, FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TO PANAMA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE AGADIR ZONE.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N54W TO 25N65W, THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 28N/29N WEST OF THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
THE RIDGE SOUTH OF 27N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE
OF THE FRONT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL WEST OF
THE FRONT TO 71W, WHILE MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WEST OF
71W. FARTHER EAST, A 1018 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N45W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO A 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N16W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THESE FEATURES AT THIS
TIME. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH
OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE N OF THE FRONT TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND CUBA TONIGHT,
THEN LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT AS
THE FRONTS SLOWLY DISSIPATE. LARGE NW SWELL WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT, THAT
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THU NIGHT, THEN
MOVE E OF 55W ON FRI, AS SEAS DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS N OF 29N TONIGHT THROUGH THU. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS E OF 70W BY THU NIGHT. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASSING NORTH
OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page