928
AXNT20 KNHC 131030
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU NOV 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TO A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE SURGED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW,
PARTICULARLY INTO BELIZE, THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND NE
NICARAGUA, LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 80W, AND FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA TO NE NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY
THURSDAY, WEAKENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LEADING TO
DIMINISHING RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HONDURAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
DRIFT NORTHWARD, LEADING TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
BELIZE AND SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO- MEXICO FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INLAND ACROSS
NICARAGUA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE- THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. THIS INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY
THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AGADIR GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
STATIONARY LOW IN THE NE ATLANTIC AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER N
AFRICA AND N ITALY WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE SW WINDS OFFSHORE AGADIR OVERNIGHT. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE
FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED, AND METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING
FOR THIS ZONE FROM 13/03 UTC THROUGH AT LEAST 13/18 UTC.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO METEO-FRANCE'S WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N18W TO
12.5N29W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N37W TO 08.5N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 06.5N45W TO 08.5N53W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 18N AND E OF 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 28.5N87W, EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 28N. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATED FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF, INCLUDING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL, MODERATE E WINDS
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND MODERATE S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE NW
GULF AND INTO THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE SE
GULF AND THROUGH THE STRAITS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI
EVENING, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL, AS A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN A STALLED FRONT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE NE AND
N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH S TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TO A 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG CYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTER IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN 7 TO 10 FT. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT, TRADE WINDS HAVE FRESHENED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 67W AND 80W AND ARE NEAR-GALE FORCE NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT PREVAIL WEST OF 70W,
AND ARE 10-11 FT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, WHILE MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS PREVAIL EAST OF 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDDAY THU, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN, AS A STATIONARY FRONT
PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN END OF CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES, AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WEAKENS, HOWEVER,
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE LEE OF CUBA
AND NEAR THE COASTS OF NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA INTO SAT.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH FRI, FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO PANAMA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS WEEKEND INTO MON.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE AGADIR ZONE.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 24N65W THEN ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ALONG 76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT W OF 60W, WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT E OF 60W.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTEND FROM THE NE
GULF OF AMERICA EASTWARD ALONG 28N TO 60W. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, FROM 120 TO 180 NM NORTH OF
THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL ARE ACROSS THESE
WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AREA ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN TO 30N50W, WHILE
MODERATE SEAS IN N SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WEST OF 71W. FARTHER
EAST, A 1016 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 25.5N45W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO A 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N16W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THESE FEATURES AT THIS TIME.
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE NORTH NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDS A
WEAK RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD TO 60W. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO NEAR-
GALE NW TO WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT,
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND DEEP LOW CENTER OVER THE NE ATLANTIC.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N AND INTO THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND CUBA TODAY, THEN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI
NIGHT AS THE FRONTS SLOWLY DISSIPATE. LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATING
THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT
THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THU NIGHT,
THEN MOVE E OF 55W ON FRI. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING
THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH W
TO NW WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS N OF 29N THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS E OF 70W THU NIGHT AND FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS,
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
STRIPLING
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