745
AXNT20 KNHC 131654
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU NOV 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
AGADIR GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
STATIONARY LOW IN THE NE ATLANTIC NEAR 45N29W AND HIGHER PRESSURE
OVER NW AFRICA AND ITALY WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED GALE-FORCE SW WINDS
WITH SEVERE GUSTS OFFSHORE AGADIR TODAY. METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
GALE WARNING FOR THIS ZONE WHICH WILL BE VALID THROUGH AT LEAST
13/18 UTC.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO METEO-FRANCE'S WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 045N19W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N41W TO 06N58W ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N-08N EAST OF
22W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE N GULF COAST NEAR 29N89W. WINDS
ARE NE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS 4-6 FT IN THE SE HALF OF THE
GULF, AND E GENTLE WITH SEAS 2-4 FT IN THE NW HALF OF THE GULF. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TODAY.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI EVENING,
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN BE REPLACED NEW
HIGH PRESSURE ON FRI. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO FRESH SPEEDS MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, WHERE IT INTERSECTS A WEAK 1016 MB LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE GULF. NORTH OF THE SHEARLINE, WINDS
ARE NE FRESH WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH A 1008 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING NE TO E FRESH TRADES
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 7-9 FT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN, THE TRADES ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS 4-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY FRI, THEN BECOME FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE FRI NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY FRI AS THE SHEARLINE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND NEAR
THE COASTS OF NW VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA INTO SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF ABOUT 80W THROUGH FRI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE SHEARLINE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE BASIN THIS WEEKEND INTO MON.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE AGADIR ZONE.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N54W NORTHWEST HAITI. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WINDS ARE N TO NE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS 5-8 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N11W TO 22N29W TO
25N40W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE N TO NE FRESH TO NEAR GALE EXCEPT
FOR GALES JUST OFF OF THE MOROCCO COAST WITH SEAS 8-14 FT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1020 MB AZORES HIGH
AT 30N40W AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ. EXCEPT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN N SWELL NORTH OF 20N AND 5-7 FT SOUTH OF
20N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND
CUBA TODAY, THEN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONTS SLOWLY DISSIPATE. SEAS TO 12 FT
OVER THE NE FORECAST WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, A NEW
COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERNIGHT
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 29N THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY LATE FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A SERIES
OF COLD FRONTS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
LANDSEA/AGUIRRE
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