947
AXNT20 KNHC 140445
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI NOV 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
AGADIR GALE WARNING: GALE-FORCE WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO MOROCCO. METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE
AGADIR ZONE WHICH WILL BE VALID THROUGH AT LEAST 14/06 UTC.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO METEO-FRANCE'S WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 07N22W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 06N57W ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N-08N EAST OF
20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N87W. FRESH NE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS REACH FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL, BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI EVENING, INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP SE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF. BY MON NIGHT AND
TUE, FRESH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE GULF
NORTH OF ROATAN. FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
NOTED NORTH OF THE SHEARLINE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH A 1008 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING NE TO E FRESH
TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH ROUGH SEAS. OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, THE TRADES ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO THE S OF CUBA WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WEAKENS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TONIGHT WILL IMPROVE AS
THE OVERALL GRADIENT WEAKENS AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND
REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF ABOUT 80W THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE AGADIR ZONE.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 31N53W
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT, EAST OF 70W. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE EASTERNMOST FRONT. AN AREA OF
ROUGH NW SWELL PERSISTS NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, NORTH OF 21N AND EAST OF 40W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE EAST OF 25W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
28N40W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WINDS BEHIND THE W ATLANTIC FRONT
WILL DIMINISH FRI AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF 60W WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY THE
WEEKEND. A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 29N THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BY LATE FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASSING NORTH
OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS OVER THESE WATERS QUIET
DOWN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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