507
AXNT20 KNHC 141749
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI NOV 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N21W TO
07N31W, WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AROUND A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS TO THE NORTH. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES AT 08N43W AND
EXTENDS WESTWARD TO NEAR 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 00N TO 08N AND E OF 26W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERALLY SOUTH OF 11N.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SE US, EXTENDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASIN ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SE GULF, GENERALLY S OF
25N AND E OF 90W. MODERATE OR WEAKER E WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION
SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR NEXT WEEK, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TO THE
COAST OF BELIZE. TO THE SOUTH, A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS
THE COASTS OF HONDURAS, NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA. THESE
FEATURES ARE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE W CARIBBEAN, GENERALLY W OF 81W AND S OF 20N.
METOP-B ASCAT DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OCCURRING
IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS IN THE LEE OF CUBA,
WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE
OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS AS WELL. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WEAKENS.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA TONIGHT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DECREASES, AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME
BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 24N63W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS TO
THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 12-14Z TODAY INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH N
TO NE WINDS AND 6-10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL FOLLOWING THESE FRONTS,
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AS WELL. A SECOND COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THESE BOUNDARIES, AND
EXTENDS FROM 31N58W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N70W AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO 29N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH N
TO NE WINDS FOLLOW THIS SECOND FRONT AS WELL.
ANOTHER STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 25N15W TO 20N29W TO 22N36W. ROUGH SEAS IN NNW SWELL
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS FOLLOW THIS FRONT. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, TWO WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOWS ARE ANALYZED
NEAR 12N33W AND THE OTHER NEAR 11N41W. CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS
AROUND THESE FEATURES ARE LEADING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 31W AND
46W. FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO
25N60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO
EASTERN CUBA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 30N WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE N WATERS TODAY, MERGING WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SAT. AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NEAR
31N55W TO N OF HISPANIOLA BEFORE STALLING. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
DISSIPATE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW TO
W WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N ON SUN, AHEAD
OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO REACH THE N PART OF THE
FORECAST REGION ON MON. ROUGH SEAS, IN MAINLY NORTHERLY SWELL,
WILL PERIODICALLY IMPACT WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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