774
AXNT20 KNHC 151008
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT NOV 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 09N36W,
WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AROUND A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS TO THE NORTH. THE ITCZ RESUMES AT 09N46W AND EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO NEAR 08N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 00N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 31N87W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE CARIBBEAN IS LEADING TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES.
SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE OR WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM FLORIDA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE A BIT EAST FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
BECOME MORE DOMINATE, WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING, REACHING
FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF
THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS IMPACTING WATERS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM
OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE
COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE CENTRAL COLOMBIA. FRESH NE WINDS ARE
ALSO OCCURRING OFFSHORE CENTRAL CUBA. MAINLY GENTLE TRADES
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE
BASIN, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRESH NE TO E
WINDS S OF CUBA AND OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES HOLD OVER THE BASIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS OVER AREA WATERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW PRESSURE OF 1012 MB CENTERED NEAR 12N38W IS INDUCING A BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 28W
AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 60 NM
OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N46W TO 22N70W. FARTHER
NORTH, A COLD FRONT IS NOTED FROM 31N53W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. NW OF
THIS FRONT, GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS DOMINATE, WITH SEAS OF 4 TO
7 FT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE
OVERALL WIND FLOW, WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS FOCUSED AROUND A 1018
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N35W. ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS S
OF 18N, MAINLY MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA ARE 5 TO 8 FT, ALTHOUGH ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL CURRENTLY
AFFECT WATERS N OF 28N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
THEN STALL BY TONIGHT FROM NEAR 23N55W TO N OF HISPANIOLA, WHERE
IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUN INTO MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
SW TO W WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N SUN,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
REGION MON. ROUGH SEAS, IN MAINLY NORTHERLY SWELL, WILL
PERIODICALLY IMPACT WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KONARIK
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