652
AXNT20 KNHC 160600
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN NOV 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N17W TO 04N33W TO 03N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 09W AND 31W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
GULF JUST OFFSHORE TAMPA BAY. OVER THE WESTERN BASIN, A SURFACE
TROUGH LINGERS FROM 27N91W TO 22N90W. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS W OF 95W AND MODERATE SW WINDS
ALONG THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO 3 FT BASIN-
WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE BASIN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE SE
GULF INTO MON. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT, REACHING
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY WED NIGHT INTO
THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA OFFSHORE WATERS. THE OTHER FEATURE IN
THE BASIN IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YOUTH ISLAND,
CUBA TO THE E GULF OF HONDURAS, WHICH IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADES AND SLIGHT SEAS TO 3 FT. MODERATE NE
WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO E WINDS S OF CUBA AND OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES
HOLD OVER THE BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
MON.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N55W TO N OF HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WITHIN 210 NM AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS S OF 29N. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE
ONGOING N OF 29N ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT IS ALSO FOLLOWED BY ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL N OF
27N. A STRONGER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N28W
COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS S OF 24N AND E OF 40W. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF THE SAME
SPEED ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N TO 36W. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE ROUGH TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SUN FROM
NEAR 24N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE INTO MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N TONIGHT INTO SUN, AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
REGION MON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N60W TO JUST N OF THE NW
BAHAMAS ON TUE.
RAMOS
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