059
AXNT20 KNHC 170541
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON NOV 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS MAINLY INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH ITS
WESTERN EXTENSION REACHING OFFSHORE NEAR 12N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 12N18W TO 06N30W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 45W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A WEAK 1015 MB RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF REGION SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 94W, AND
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINING GULF.
SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO 3 FT BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NE GULF WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON. AFTERWARD, STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BUILD
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED GRADIENT RESULTING IN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN, WITH
THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE NW GULF AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ROUGH
WITH THESE WINDS. THE COLD FRONT MAY PUSH TO JUST OFFSHORE THE
TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND BECOME STATIONARY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, EXTENDING FROM
JUST EAST OF THE YOUTH ISLAND, CUBA TO THE E GULF OF HONDURAS,
WHICH IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF LEE
SIDE OF CUBA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN JUST W
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE OFFSHORE ZONES E OF 64W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT LOCALLY MODERATE TO
FRESH IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
JUST E OF YOUTH ISLAND. LOCALLY MODERATE TRADES ARE ALSO LIKELY IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO 3 FT ACROSS THE
REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
GENERALLY MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN
INTO EARLY TUE. THE TRADE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO MOSTLY
FRESH SPEEDS DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE COLOMBIAN LOW BECOMES EVIDENT.
OTHERWISE, PULSES OF MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL
AS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY WED.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N36W AND EXTENDS SW
TO NEAR 24N48W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
CONTINUES SW TO JUST NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE FRONT, MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARD THE
NORTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 24N. DECAYING NW SWELL
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N.
FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
FLORIDA AND 60W AHEAD THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS OVER THIS AREA OF
STRONGER WINDS ARE IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL. THE AZORES
HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, EXCEPT FOR THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM NW AFRICA TO 24N22W. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT BETWEEN THE NW COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS
AND ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH MON THEN DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NW WATERS MON, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL TUE FROM
AROUND 30N60W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N THROUGH MON, WITH
SOME ROUGH SEAS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N OVER NE
WATERS UNTIL THE FRONT DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
RAMOS
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