630
AXNT20 KNHC 171806
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON NOV 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT. AN
ITCZ EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM OFFSHORE OF SIERRA LEONE ACROSS 06N35W
TO JUST NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 07N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND UP TO 140 NM NORTH, AND UP TO 180 NM SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ.
THE EASTERN END OF EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST COLD FRONT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR TAMPA, FLORIDA
TO 29N87W, THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO BEYOND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT EXIST AT THE NORTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE, A 1017 MB HIGH AT THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF IS DOMINATING THE REGION WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE NNE TO E TO SE
WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING SE FLOW OVER THE GULF,
WITH FRESH WINDS DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF, NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER TEXAS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. SLIGHT SEAS WILL BUILD TO MODERATE AS THE WINDS
INCREASE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 20N82W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THIS AREA. CONVERGENT
TRADE WINDS ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT EXIST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NE
TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 3 FT DOMINATE THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
GENERALLY MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN INTO EARLY TUE. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN AS A WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES WHILE
THE COLOMBIAN LOW BECOMES EVIDENT. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS WEST OF 70W THU AND FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS 31N69W
TO THE CANAVERAL NATIONAL SEASHORE, FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N78W TO 20N44W TO 22N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 120 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE,
EAST OF 44W. A PAIR OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS MAKING PATCHY SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHWEST
BAHAMA. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION AT THE BEGINNING
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO SW WINDS WITH 7 TO 10 FT SEAS IN A MIXED
LARGE N AND S SWELLS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED FROM 09N TO 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN
MODERATE SWELL ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND THE
BAHAMAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN, WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND
STALL TUE FROM AROUND 30N60W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. STRONG SW
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF
29N TODAY, WITH SOME ROUGH SEAS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH
OF 28N OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL THE FRONT DISSIPATES TUE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BRING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS.
CHAN
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