976
AXNT20 KNHC 180958
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE NOV 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N17W TO 10N22W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS 10N22W TO 03N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE NE GULF HAS
DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DRIFTED WEST
OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE INFLUENCING GULF WEATHER THIS
MORNING, INDUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF, AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT IN THE WESTERN BASIN, AND LESS THAN 2 FT IN THE EAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE NE
GULF, ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS TO ESTABLISH TONIGHT
THROUGH THU OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE
WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK LOW OF 1013 MB IS SPINNING MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ISLE OF
YOUTH, CUBA, AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL
CUBA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE NW QUADRANT OF
THE LOW CENTER. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST IS ALSO
CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND
EASTERN PANAMA. ASIDE FROM THE NEAR AFOREMENTIONED LOW, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE THE NW CARIBBEAN, WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE LESS THAN 2 FT IN THE NW BASIN, 2 TO 4 FT
ELSEWHERE, WITH 4 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
WILL DEVOLVE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH TODAY, MOVE W TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TONIGHT, THEN DISSIPATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE TRADEWINDS TO RETURN TO NORMAL
MAGNITUDE BY MID- WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E
WINDS EXPECTED WED INTO THE WEEKEND. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY OFFSHORE COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N63W TO
THE NW BAHAMAS. N OF THE FRONT, MODERATE N WINDS ARE ONGOING,
ALONG WITH MODERATE, BUT DECAYING, SEAS. TO THE EAST, A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM 30N58W TO 23N62W IS INDUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. STILL FARTHER E,
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N38W TO 22N45W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF IT TO THE N OF 25N. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 56W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N IS
DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NE WINDS ARE NOTED FOR ALL WATERS E OF 35W.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL,
WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS. ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL ARE IMPACTING
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE E TODAY AND WEAKEN, STALL TONIGHT FROM AROUND 31N58W TO
27N70W, THEN DISSIPATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S TOWARD THE
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEEK, LEADING TO
GENTLE BREEZES N OF 25N AND MODERATE E WINDS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, SW WINDS MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
KONARIK
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