532
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE NOV 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SENEGAL COAST JUST
SOUTH OF DAKAR TO 11N20W. AN ITCZ CURVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
11N20W TO 05N35W TO NORTH OF SURINAME AT 08N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR BOTH FEATURES
FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN THE GUINEA-BISSAU/LIBERIA COAST AND 45W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS NEAR PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE, A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GULF. GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
ENE TO SSE WINDS AND 1 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT FOR THE ENTIRE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH FRI
ACROSS THE GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS PERSISTING MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ISLE OF
YOUTH, CUBA, AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. CONVERGENT SE WINDS EAST OF
THE LOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN
CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SIMILAR
CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO
ESE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVOLVE
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY, MOVE WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN TO
NORMAL MAGNITUDE BY MIDWEEK, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO
E WINDS EXPECTED WED INTO THE WEEKEND. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY OFFSHORE COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
EAST OF BERMUDA ACROSS 31N62W TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. PATCHY
SHOWERS AND OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 90 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST, DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETTING IS CREATING SIMILAR CONVECTION
EAST OF THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A
STATIONARY FRONT RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N36W TO 23N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND UP TO
50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. A ROBUST SURFACE TROUGH
IS BRINGING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE COAST OF GUYANA, SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SURINAME AND
FRENCH GUIANA COAST NORTHWARD TO 13N. FOR THE REST OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES,
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT EXIST.
NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT. FARTHER EAST FROM 20N TO 31N
BETWEEN 51W AND THE COLD FRONT, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 5 TO 8
FT SEAS IN LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL DOMINATE. NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
35W AND 51W, GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 7 FT ARE
EVIDENT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY AND WEAKEN FURTHER, STALL TONIGHT FROM
AROUND 31N58W TO 27N70W, THEN DISSIPATE WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEEK,
LEADING TO GENTLE BREEZES NORTH OF 25N AND MODERATE E WINDS TO
THE SOUTH. NORTH SWELL WILL INDUCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 28N AND
EAST OF 70W INTO TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY
FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, SW WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
CHAN
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